Poland’s demographic disaster

In the 11th Polish Demographic Congress, which concluded on November 23rd, 2012, Professor Zbigniew Strzelecki predicted that Poland’s 40 million population would shrink by 6 million over the next 40 years, “if we do not act on decreasing fertility and stop migration.”

In 2011, on average, each woman in Poland is having 1.31 children, well below the natural replacement level

Historically high, Poland’s birthrate is now among the lowest in Europe. In 2011, on average, each woman in Poland is having 1.31 children, well below the natural replacement level. Professor Stzrelecki has suggested the only way to remedy this situation is to, “prepare to welcome immigrants of different cultures.” He predicts the main source of future immigration to Poland to be the countries to the east of Poland where, “the situation is worse than in Poland.”

While Poland is suffering such a demographic disaster, the situation in the United Kingdom is entirely the opposite, with the population growing at the rate of a thousand a day, and dire warnings of unsustainable population growth.  Whereas the fertilty rate for British born mothers in the U.K. is 1.9, (still below the replacement rate), the figure for U.K. residents born outside the U.K. is an extremely healthy 2.29.

In 2011, 25.5% of the 808,000 births in the U.K. were to foreign born mothers, and the most common coutry of origin for foreign born mothers in the U.K. was Poland. In 2010, 19,762 babies were born to Polish mothers in the U.K., and in 2011, this figure had risen to 20,500. Now, Polish mothers account for one in forty of all British births.

It must be pointed out that the United Kingdom is far from being the only destination for Polish emigrants, with many more Polish children being born in, for example, Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands.

It is further worth stating that those leaving Poland are, for the most part, younger and better-educated than the Polish population as a whole. It is estimated that around 60% of Polish emigrants to the U.K. in recent years are aged between 24 and 35, and 40% have a university degree.

Why the exodus from Poland?

The reason for the catastrophic drop in the Polish birthrate is not the unwillingness of Polish young people to start families in Poland, but rather that the conditions for them to do so are not favourable in their home countries. Life for many is clearly better and easier elsewhere. Why should this be so?

Much of the blame much lie with the inefficient Z.U.S. system of social insurance, which can consume as much as half of people’s salaries, yet gives back little in return. There is no system of family allowance in Poland, (in the U.K. over 100 PLN a week for every child), only a tiny, one-off payment. It would seem that Z.U.S. exists primarily to benefit the Z.U.S. bureaucrats, rather than those it is intended to help, those who pay Z.U.S..

The exodus from Poland of many of its youngest and brightest should be a wake-up call for Poland’s politicians. So far, since the fall of communism, they’ve had nearly 25 years to start to get things right. It is up to them to create the kind of country people would like to live in, and not to leave.

Warren Whitmore

English editor, A native of the Isle of Wight, Warren has been running the language teaching company, Go! Languages, with his wife Małgorzata, since 1997. A fan of England, Portsmouth F.C. and Pogoń Szczecin, Warren will be contribing articles on football for the Szczecinian.

  

This post is also available in: Polish

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